Surprise Zoning

Executive Summary: The 2026 Surprise Development Framework

Market Dynamics

Surprise, Arizona, is experiencing rapid population growth, projected to reach 167,564 residents in 2026. This represents a 5.3% annual growth rate and a 16.05% increase since the 2020 census. This growth is fueled by an influx of new residents from states like California, Washington, Illinois, and Colorado, drawn by affordable housing, warm climate, and a high quality of life. This surge in population is placing considerable pressure on the housing market and infrastructure, leading to increased demand for diverse housing options, including single-family homes, 55+ communities, and new builds. The median household income in Surprise is $93,371, with a poverty rate of 7.79%.

Political & Development Climate

The Surprise City Council faces a complex development climate, balancing the need to accommodate rapid growth with concerns about infrastructure, public safety, and community character. Recent events, such as the controversy surrounding the planned ICE detention center, highlight the tensions between federal projects and local zoning regulations, as well as the importance of community engagement and transparency in development decisions. While the city generally aims to follow its Land Development Ordinances (LDO) and the Planning and Engineering Design Standards (PEDS), federal projects are often exempt from local regulations. This has, at times, put the City Council at odds with its constituency.

Key Drivers

• Driver 1: Population Growth & In-Migration: Continued migration from other states seeking affordable housing and a desirable lifestyle will drive demand for housing and services.
• Driver 2: Housing Affordability & Availability: The balance between housing costs, inventory, and new construction will shape the market, influencing price appreciation and buyer behavior.
• Driver 3: Infrastructure Capacity & Investment: The city's ability to expand and maintain infrastructure, including water, sewer, and transportation, will be critical to supporting growth and maintaining quality of life.

Strategic Growth Corridors

Primary Commercial Arteries

Key commercial arteries in Surprise include Bell Road and Grand Avenue (US 60), which serve as major transportation routes and commercial spines. Loop 303 also facilitates regional access and supports commercial development in the northern and western parts of the city. These corridors are vital for retail, services, and employment, and their continued development and improvement are crucial for the city's economic health. Furthermore, the area around 235th and 211th Avenues along U.S. 60, is a key location for future development.

Redevelopment Nodes

The Surprise Heritage District (SHD) represents a targeted redevelopment node, aiming to preserve the city's history while fostering pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use development. Other areas may be identified for revitalization based on changing demographics, market conditions, and infrastructure investments. It is key to note that the city utilized a planned area development (PAD) zoning district prior to the adoption of the current ordinance, meaning existing PADs may have individual development standards, land uses, and densities that are preserved.

• Opportunity: Encouraging infill development and adaptive reuse in the SHD to create a vibrant, walkable district.
• Constraint: Balancing preservation goals with the need for new development and economic activity in redevelopment areas.

Detailed Zoning District Analysis

The city's land use is governed by the following primary classifications, as outlined in the Land Development Ordinance (LDO):

Residential Districts

Surprise offers a range of residential zoning districts to accommodate diverse housing needs and densities. The transition from low to high density is reflected in the following codes: RR (Residential Rural), R-1 (Residential Low Density), R-2 (Residential Medium Density), and R-3 (Residential High Density). The Rural Residential (RR) district typically features large lot sizes and preserves a rural character. The R-1 district allows for single-family homes on smaller lots, while R-2 permits higher density single-family and potentially some multi-family development. The R-3 district is intended for multi-family residential development with a minimum of four dwelling units per lot and a net residential density of more than eight dwelling units per acre. The Surprise Heritage District—Residential Overlay (SHD-RO) permits uses allowed as shown in Table 106-1c and Table 106-1d. Designs should be indicative of historic residential neighborhoods and the small scale cottage industry uses that are pedestrian-oriented and support the residents and allow for them to live, work, and play within their neighborhood.

Commercial & Mixed-Use

Surprise has several commercial zoning districts to accommodate various levels of commercial activity. These include C-O (Office Commercial), C-1 (Neighborhood Commercial), C-2 (Community Commercial), and C-3 (Regional Commercial). The C-1 district is intended for small-scale retail and service uses that serve nearby residential areas, while C-2 and C-3 districts accommodate larger shopping centers and regional commercial development. Mixed-use zoning districts, such as MU-1 (Mixed Use Medium Density), MU-2 (Mixed Use High Density), and MU-3 (Mixed Use Resort), allow for the integration of residential, commercial, and office uses within the same development. The Surprise Heritage District—Commercial Overlay (SHD-CO) permits uses allowed as shown in Table 106-1c and Table 106-1d in Article I of this chapter. Designs should promote the local arts and culture as well as business opportunities that are compatible with and supportive of the residential overlay. A mix of neighborhood-scale commercial, retail, entertainment establishments, live-work buildings, and mixed use are appropriate in the SHD-CO district.

Industrial & Special Purpose

Industrial activities are accommodated in I-1 (Light Industrial), I-2 (General Industrial), and I-3 (Heavy Industrial) zoning districts. The I-1 district is intended for light manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution uses with limited outdoor storage. The I-2 district allows for a broader range of industrial activities with outdoor operations and storage, while I-3 is reserved for heavy industrial uses that may require large land areas and have potential environmental impacts. Special purpose districts include OS-1 (Open Space Conservation), OS-2 (Open Space Recreation), and PF (Public Facilities). The purpose of the open space conservation (OS-1) zoning district is to conserve, protect, and enhance natural open spaces such as but not limited to: desert washes and flood plains; environmentally sensitive lands; natural wildlife habitat and corridors; buffers between incompatible land uses; and unique or outstanding natural features. Civic zoning districts provide zoning criteria and development standards for those public land uses and facilities that are necessary to serve the community at large, conserve environmentally sensitive features and natural areas, or provide recreational amenities that enhance the quality of life for the residents of the city.

Recent Code Amendments & Trends

Regulatory Updates

The City of Surprise adopted a comprehensive update of its Land Development Ordinances (LDO) and Planning and Engineering Design Standards (PEDS) in January 2021, replacing the previous Surprise Unified Development Code. Recent ordinance changes include text amendments to correct scrivener's errors, improve clarity and consistency, and ensure consistency with state statutes. These updates also address issues such as accessory dwelling units (ADUs), site plan validity, and conditional use permits. Carefree, a neighboring town, also has made efforts to update its zoning ordinances for multiple reasons, including the need to maintain consistency with new state and federal laws.

Housing Innovation

Surprise has taken steps to loosen regulations on Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs), making it easier for homeowners to build casitas on their properties. The state requires a setback distance of 5 feet from the side and rear property lines for detached ADUs and a 5-foot separation between the ADU. Single-family residential uses will be limited to only one (1) accessory dwelling unit (ADU) per lot of record in the RR, R-1 and R-2, SHD-RO, and TND-R zoning districts. The city requires open space on a new subdivision; if recorded as metes and bounds or by a minor land division than then open space will be required on each individual lot; such as open space or trail easements.

Infrastructure & Concurrency

Utility Capacity

As Surprise grows, ensuring adequate utility capacity is crucial. The city relies on Arizona Public Service (APS) and the Salt River Project (SRP) for energy. Water services are provided by a private water company, and costs can vary. Maintaining and upgrading water lines and booster pump stations are ongoing needs. The City of Surprise promotes recycling efforts and provides citizens with both recycling and trash services.

Impact Fees & Permits

Development impact fees are used to offset the costs of infrastructure improvements necessitated by new development. These fees help ensure that growth pays for itself and that existing residents are not burdened by the costs of new infrastructure. The city accepts online submittals for building permits, plan review cases, engineering permits and construction. Dimensional variances only may be allowed; no variance regarding use of property shall be permitted; no variance decreasing lot area requirements shall be allowed.